Markets up on hopes IMF will get more money

Markets advanced further Wednesday on hopes the International Monetary Fund would get more money and as Greece resumes discussions with private creditors to get them to agree to reduce the value of their holdings of Greek debt.

Following a breakdown of talks last Friday, investors remain nervous about what may happen, though sentiment has been shored up somewhat by comments made late Tuesday from Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, that the Washington D.C.-based institution was looking at ways to increase its financial firepower, partly to deal with Europe’s debt crisis.

If the IMF were to have its resources ramped up by governments raising their contributions, then it would have more money available to potentially help Europe in dealing with its debt woes.

“More resources means more liquidity which I guess is good for asset prices in the short term, or at least reduces threat of systemic risk in the interim,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.

Europe’s debt crisis started in Greece over two years ago and investors will be looking to see if the country can negotiate a deal with its creditors that will ease the burden of its crushing debts.

Last October, Greece’s partners in the eurozone sanctioned a deal whereby Greece’s creditors agree to take a cut in the value of their Greek bond holdings to help lighten the country’s debt burden. The deal with private investors, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, aims to reduce Greece’s debt by euro100 billion ($127.9 billion) by swapping private creditors’ bonds for new ones with a lower value. It is a key part of a euro130 billion international bailout, the second one for Greece.

Without a deal with its private creditors, Greece has been told it won’t get the next installment of money due from its first bailout. Without that money, Greece would be unable to pay a big bond redemption in March, potentially triggering a chain of events that could derail the global economic recovery and cause financial mayhem in Europe.

“All eyes will once again be on Greece today as talks restart with the IIF today on the voluntary restructuring of the debt with private creditors,” said Michael Hewson, markets analyst at CMC Markets.

In Europe, the CAC-40 in France was up 0.4 percent at 3,284 while Germany’s DAX rose 0.5 percent to 6,365. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was steady at 5,695.

In the currency markets, the euro remained well-supported as it rebounded off 17-month dollar lows payday loan lenders. It was trading 0.7 percent higher at $1.2832.

Wall Street was poised for a steady open later though a run of economic data may well alter expectations _ Dow futures were up 0.4 percent at 12,469 while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 0.5 percent to 1,295.

Earlier Asian stock markets largely continued their recent advance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1 percent to close at 8,550.58 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.3 percent to 19,686.92.

However, mainland Chinese shares fell on profit-taking after a brisk day of trade Tuesday that saw the biggest gains in 27 months. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.4 percent to 2,266.38, while the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped 2.7 percent to 837.40.

Investors cheered Tuesday’s news out of China that the world’s second-largest economy slowed less dramatically in the fourth quarter than feared _ but still enough of a slowdown to persuade investors that Beijing will pursue a pro-growth monetary policy.

“People have been buying stocks in anticipation of a relaxation in monetary policy by the Chinese government,” said Derek Cheung, chief investment officer at Neutron INV Partners Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The market expects this around Chinese New Year. If China doesn’t loosen around the new year, the market may come under pressure.” The holiday begins Jan. 23.

With Europe seemingly sliding back toward recession and the U.S. recovery still fairly moderate by historical standards, China’s performance is important to shore up the global economy and market sentiment, especially when investors are fretting about a potential Greek default that could further roil financial markets.

The World Bank was the latest organization to issue a warning about the global economy. In an economic update, the Washington D.C.-based international organization cut its growth forecast for developing countries this year to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent and for developed countries to 1.4 percent from 2.7 percent. For the 17 countries that use the euro currency, it forecast a 0.3 percent from the previous estimate of 1.8 percent growth.

Despite the World Bank’s warning, oil prices remain supported on China’s positive growth news _ benchmark crude for February delivery was up 57 cents at $101.28 a barrel.

Source

In the future, can you remain anonymous?

Face recognition and detection technology is becoming cheaper, faster, and much more commonplace, raising the question of whether people will be able to remain anonymous in the near future.

Digital signs and sensors that detect and recognize faces are no longer a matter of science fiction. They are real and are popping up everywhere from malls to bars to smartphones.

So what’s protecting you from Big Brother tracking your movements and invading your privacy? As of right now, technology is the only significant barrier.

Today, the technology is not quite robust enough to snap a photo of someone on the street and instantly know who they are. Computer processors aren’t fast enough to scan across billions of images in real time to match an offline face to an online photograph. But that’s coming soon.

"To match two photos of people in the United States in real time would take four hours," said Alessandro Acquisti, professor of IT and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College. "That’s too long to do in real time. But assuming a steady improvement in cloud computing time, we can soon get much closer to that reality than many of us believed."

Acquisti and his research team at Carnegie Mellon have already developed a proof-of-concept iPhone application that can snap a photo of a person and within seconds display their name, date of birth and social security number.

Currently, the reference photos have to be uploaded to a database, but Acquisti said that processing speeds will soon become fast enough to do the whole process online and in an instant.

Since 1993, the false positive rate for identifying faces has been halved every two years, reaching 0.003% by the end of last year, according to the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Though computers still have difficulty identifying faces in low light or poor photo quality, programs are now able to capture a profile of a face, build a 3D model of it, rotate the photo and identify the person the face belongs to.

If a future in which you can always be identified really is around the corner, what will stop advertisers or even the government from putting names to previously anonymous faces of people walking into a store, strolling down the street or protesting a convention? That’s what the Federal Trade Commission sought to find out at a facial recognition policy conference in Washington last month payday loans guaranteed no fax.

The answer as of now: industry self-regulation. The Digital Signage Federation, a consortium of companies operating digital signs that detect or recognize faces, developed privacy guidelines that require consumers to "opt-in" to being detected or recognized. But that "opt-in" can be made as simply as walking into a store that posts on its window that it detects faces.

Privacy advocates and lawyers representing face recognition companies agreed that the kinks need to be worked out of the system. As of today, no laws or regulations specifically prevent your face from being detected or recognized without your consent.

"Is U.S. privacy law ready for facial recognition? It’s not even close," said Daniel Solove, professor at the George Washington University Law School.

The solution, however, isn’t easy. Warning people that a particular venue is equipped with face detection technology means the only way for people not to be detected would be to avoid the location. But what if it’s a drug store and someone needs to get a prescription?

What about a "do not track" registry of faces? Even if that technology could be developed, it’s not feasible to ask everyone to submit a photo and unpalatable for many to opt-out of a system that most believe should be opt-in.

Some suggested a red line denoting a face recognition area or even separate entrances. But what about digital signs on the sidewalk?

"Wear a mask," said John Verdi, senior counsel of the Electronic Privacy Information Center.

Now there’s a thought.  

Source

Little benefit in boosting already-high credit score

Jeff Rose, 33, a financial planner, is trying to improve his credit score — even though it’s 780, which is 69 points above the median score.

Rose, who lives in Carbondale, Ill., said he opened up a second credit card last year to establish another line of credit and help boost his score. He said he doesn’t know exactly what actions will help or hurt his score, but he wants to get it above 800 to ensure he gets the best rate if he refinances his mortgage.

Three years after the credit crisis — when lenders abruptly closed accounts and cut limits — consumers, including those with excellent scores, have become more focused on getting their number above 800. Those efforts may be futile, because once consumers have FICO credit scores of 760, a higher one doesn’t mean they’ll get better interest rates on mortgages and credit cards or more elite card offers, said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

“There’s very little incremental benefit to getting a score above that,” he said. Once consumers are above 760, “it’s a lot more difficult to move the score up in any noticeable way, and little reward.”

The most common scores are based on models established by FICO, formerly known as Fair Isaac Corp., which are used to gauge financial health. The numbers, which range from 300 to 850, affect the ability to get mortgages and credit cards, as well as the rates borrowers pay. The score is used by 90 of the 100 largest U.S. financial institutions, according to FICO’s website. There are other scores used by lenders, such as VantageScore, which has a 501 to 990 range for measuring credit risk.

About 18 percent of 200 million consumers in the U.S. with credit scores, or 36 million Americans, had credit scores of 800 or higher in 2011, according to estimates from FICO. More than 75 million had scores of at least 750; the median score last year was about 711, FICO said.

The percentage of consumers with scores of 750 or more has fluctuated only slightly during the past five years, said Barry Paperno, consumer affairs manager for myFICO.com. That’s because consumers with high credit scores tended to maintain their good behaviors during the credit crisis, such as paying down debt and cutting expenses, Paperno said.

The score that’s considered the cutoff to qualify for the best rates, however, has changed. Before the recession, it was generally 720 instead of at least 750, said Ben Woolsey, director of marketing and consumer research at CreditCards.com.

FICO credit scores rank borrowers according to the likelihood of default, and there’s almost no difference in the probability of default when a consumer has a 780 or an 820, said Ken Lin, chief executive and founder of Credit Karma payday loans. That means lenders won’t price a consumer differently or extend different rates, Lin said. “If you’re at 780 plus, it’s all bragging rights from there,” Lin said.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.89 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac. The average interest rate charged on credit card balances was 12.8 percent in November, according to Federal Reserve figures released Jan. 9.

A FICO score of 760 or higher on a $300,000 30-year fixed mortgage may qualify a borrower for a 3.62 rate or $1,368 monthly payment, compared with a 3.85 percent rate and monthly payment of $1,406 for those with scores from 700 to 759, according to myFICO.com. Having a credit score of at least 720 means a consumer may get a 3.89 rate on a 36-month auto loan of $25,000 and pay $737 a month, compared with 5.31 percent and a payment of $753 for those with scores from 690 to 719.

The decision to offer a mortgage and the size and rate on that loan is based on many factors about a borrower’s financial history, said Tom Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets. JPMorgan’s risk management approach is proprietary, and criteria that go into the decisions on credit cards may be based on income and credit history with other Chase products, said Paul Hartwick, a spokesman for the bank.

While the type of mortgage product and region may affect rates, generally FICO scores above 720 receive the lowest rates, Terry Francisco, a spokesman for Bank of America Corp. A FICO score is one of several considerations the bank uses in determining credit card rates, Betty Riess, a spokeswoman for Bank of America, the second-biggest U.S. lender.

Elite card offers are more likely to be based on income and assets than high credit scores, Bankrate’s McBride said. When making credit decisions, American Express Co. looks at a cardmember’s credit profile, which includes total debt level, reported income, credit bureau score, credit report and payment history, said Melanie Backs, a spokeswoman for the firm, the biggest credit card issuer by purchases.

Revolving debt, which includes credit cards, climbed in November by $5.6 billion, the biggest advance since March 2008, according to Federal Reserve data.

“There are a lot of companies out there competing for credit,” said Linda Sherry, director of national priorities for Consumer Action in Washington. “Once you’re there, your dance card is going to be full,” she said, referring to a score of about 770.

Source

November trade deficit hits $47.8 billion

The U.S. trade deficit widened in November for the first time in five months, largely because of a spike in the price of imported oil.

Still, exports fell for a second straight month, a sign that Europe’s slowdown has begun to affect the U.S. economy.

The trade gap rose 10.4 percent to $47.8 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Overall exports dropped 0.9 percent to $177.8 billion. But American exports to Europe fell more sharply _ nearly 6 percent.

Many economists say Europe may already be in a recession, which would cut demand for American-made goods. Europe buys roughly one-fifth of U.S. exports.

Falling exports weakens growth because it means less production at factories and weaker revenue for U.S. companies.

“The decline in our sales to Europe was fairly large and may be the start of a longer-term trend in declining exports to the Continent,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Higher oil prices were the main reason the deficit widen. Imports rose 1.3 percent to a record $225.6 billion. The price of oil rose above $100 per barrel in November. It had been as low as $75 per barrel in the previous month.

The trade deficit hit a 2011 peak of $52.1 billion before it fell for four straight months. That helped boost economic growth because foreign nations were buying more American goods.

Exports hit an all-time high of $180.6 billion in September, reflecting healthy sales of American-made cars and trucks in foreign markets totally free credit score.

Higher exports lead to more U.S. jobs and higher consumer spending, which boosts economic growth.

A weaker trade deficit will subtract from growth in the final three months of the year. Many economists had expected growth to be strong after seeing more hiring, an increase in inventory growth and faster production at U.S. factories.

“The widening in the U.S. trade deficit in November … is perhaps the first real sign that the crisis in Europe and the more general global slowdown is starting to take its toll on the U.S.,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics.

Through 11 months, the 2011 deficit is running at an annual rate of $559.4 billion, 11.9 percent above the 2010 deficit of $500 billion.

For November, the deficit with China dropped 4.3 percent to $26.9 billion. But for the year, the imbalance with China climbed to $272.3 billion. That’s on track to surpass last year’s record of $273.1 billion.

Auto imports rose to $22.3 billion. But consumer goods fell to $42.5 billion, reflecting declines in household goods, clothing and televisions.

The drop in exports covered a number of manufacturing categories. Sales of commercial aircraft, U.S.-made cars and machinery were all down.

Source

Supervalu 3rd quarter loss widens

Grocery store operator Supervalu says its fiscal third quarter net loss widened due to costs related to a turnaround plan, continued high food prices and a cautious consumer.

The company is facing high food costs as well as costs related to a restructuring plan which involves closing stores, selling off some businesses and lowering debt.

The company lowered its yearly sales guidance, Its shares fell more than 6 percent in premarket trading.

Eden Prairie, Minn.-based Supervalu says its net loss totaled $750 million, or $3 guaranteed payday loan.54 per share, in the three months ended Dec. 3. That compares to a loss of $202 million, or 95 cents per share, last year.

Excluding unusual costs, it earned 24 cents per share. That was a penny shy of analysts’ expectations.

Revenue fell 4 percent to $8.33 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $8.22 billion.

Source

China’s trade weakens; December surplus $16.5B

China’s import growth showed an unexpectedly sharp drop in December in a new sign the world’s second-largest economy is slowing.

December growth in imports fell to 11.8 percent, barely above half the previous month’s 22.1 percent gain, customs data showed Tuesday. Exports rose 13.4 percent, down slightly from November’s growth rate. The country’s politically sensitive global trade surplus widened to $16.5 billion.

The widening of China’s trade surplus from $14.5 billion in November might fuel strains with the United States and other trading partners. They complain Beijing is hampering access to its markets, hurting foreign companies at a time when governments worldwide are trying to revive growth and generate new jobs.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geither visits Beijing this week for talks that officials say will include complaints about China’s currency controls. Washington wants an end to such controls, which critics say keep China’s yuan undervalued and give its exporters an unfair trade advantage.

China’s relatively robust growth has been a rare bright spot for a struggling global economy. But growth has slowed in recent months after Beijing tightened lending and investment curbs to prevent overheating.

A slump in demand for Chinese goods abroad has prompted the government to reverse course and promise to help struggling exporters and shore up growth with more bank lending and other measures. It is unclear what impact they will have.

China is one of the biggest importers, making any slowdown unwelcome news for Asian suppliers of industrial components and commodities producers such as Australia and Brazil that depend on Chinese demand for iron ore and coal.

December imports were $158.2 billion while exports were $174.7 billion.

China’s trade surplus with the 27-nation European Union, its biggest trading partner, held steady at $11.9 billion. Imports from Europe rose 13 percent to $19 payday advance.1 billion.

The trade surplus with the United States widened 24.2 percent to $17.4 billion as imports of U.S. goods fell 2 percent.

Chinese imports of crude oil in December rose 6 percent by volume over a year earlier but purchases of other foreign goods such as bauxite and cooking oil declined.

China’s rapid economic growth slowed to 9.1 percent in the three months ending in September from 9.6 percent the previous quarter and 2010’s double-digit expansion.

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 9.5 percent growth for 2011 _ by far the highest of any major economy. But export weakness has forced thousands of small companies into bankruptcy, raising concern among Chinese leaders about job losses and unrest.

Manufacturing and export orders fell in November and December, according to industry surveys.

Chinese export growth has fallen steadily since August as Europe’s debt crisis and high U.S. unemployment hurt demand. But it has stayed in double digits, showing the competitive strength of Chinese exporters in global markets.

Beijing faces pressure abroad over currency controls that Washington and other governments say keep its yuan undervalued, giving its exporters an unfair advantage and hurting foreign competitors. The communist government has allowed the yuan to rise in value in recent years but has resisted pressure for faster action, spurring demands by some U.S. lawmakers for punitive tariffs on Chinese goods.

For the full year, China’s exports rose 20.3 percent to $1.9 trillion while imports gained 24.9 percent to $1.7 trillion. The 2011 global trade surplus was $155.2 billion, down 34 percent from 2010’s $190 billion.

Source

AP source: Mogul gives $5M to pro-Gingrich group

A Las Vegas billionaire has contributed $5 million to an independent group backing Newt Gingrich, bolstering the former House speaker’s efforts to revive his presidential campaign and drawing renewed attention to the role of such groups in the 2012 contest.

A person familiar with the development said Sheldon Adelson, a casino mogul and longtime donor to Republican candidates, made the contribution Friday to Winning Our Future, a super PAC run by Gingrich allies.

The person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity and was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said Adelson is expected to contribute as much or more to groups backing the Republican nominee, be it Gingrich or one of his rivals.

Rick Tyler, a former top Gingrich strategist and spokesman for Winning Our Future, declined comment on the donation, which was first reported by The Washington Post. Politico reported last month that Adelson was prepared to spend $20 million to help Gingrich.

A 2010 Supreme Court decision easing restrictions on corporate and individual spending laid the groundwork for these political action committees, or super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections as long as they do not coordinate directly with a candidate’s campaign. The identities of those who contributed to super PACs in the second half of 2011 won’t be reported until the end of January.

Many donors’ names will never be known. Some super PACs have established nonprofit arms that are permitted to shield contributors’ identities as long as they spend no more than 50 percent of their money on electoral politics. Crossroads, the giant conservative outfit tied to former George W. Bush political adviser Karl Rove, operates both a super PAC and a nonprofit.

Crossroads and other Republican-leaning super PACs played a significant role in the 2010 midterm elections, helping deliver the House to the GOP and boost the number of Republicans in the Senate. The 2012 contest is the first to test the influence of such groups in presidential politics.

No candidate has seen his fortunes affected by the emergence of super PACs more than Gingrich.

Riding high in polls just a month ago, he became the target of a $3 million advertising barrage sponsored by Restore Our Future, a super PAC supporting Mitt Romney run by several of the former Massachusetts governor’s allies. The ads, which pounded Gingrich for his ties to federal housing giant Freddie Mac and his reversal on issues such as climate change, sent his political fortunes plunging in Iowa. Gingrich finished fourth in the state’s caucuses last week.

Romney and Gingrich tangled over the role of super PACs in a nationally televised debate Sunday. Romney said he had not seen Restore Our Future’s ads but defended their content.

“Governor, I wish you would calmly and directly state it is your former staff running the PAC,” Gingrich said to Romney, warning his own allies would be on the air soon.

Gingrich has pledged to carry on and is hoping to resuscitate his campaign in South Carolina, which holds its primary Jan. 21. With Romney heavily favored to win the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, his rivals are looking to slow his momentum when the contest moves to the South.

Several super PACs have already played a role in the Republican campaign. They include Make Us Great Again, a super PAC backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Our Destiny, supporting former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman; and the Red White and Blue Fund, which helped revive Rick Santorum’s campaign in Iowa and is running ads in South Carolina.

Priorities USA Action, a super PAC backing President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, has spent modestly during the Republican nominating contest and is expected to step up its role in the general election.

___

Online:

FEC: http://www.fec.gov/press/press2011/ieoc_alpha.shtml

Source

Nigeria Labor Unions Plan to Proceed With Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal - Bloomberg

Nigerian labor unions plan to go ahead with a nationwide strike to protest the scrapping of fuel subsidies that more than doubled gasoline prices, said Owei Lakemfa, general secretary of the Nigeria Labor Congress.

Fewer people sought unemployment aid last week

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell further in the final week of 2011, a positive sign for hiring one day ahead of Friday’s December employment report.

The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 last week. It was the fourth drop in five weeks. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, declined to 373,250, the lowest level since June 2008.

When applications drop below 375,000 _ consistently _ they generally signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate business card.

Applications have declined steadily over the past three months. The four-week average fell 11 percent in 2011, evidence that companies are laying off fewer workers. But many employers have been slow to add jobs.

Source

German Unemployment Drops More Than Forecast as Mild Winter Fuels Building - Bloomberg

German unemployment (GRUECHNG) fell more than forecast in December as exports of cars and machinery boomed and one of the mildest winters on record helped support jobs in construction.

The number of people out of work fell a seasonally adjusted 22,000 to 2.89 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, the median of 20 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The adjusted jobless rate (GRUEPR) dropped to 6.8 percent.

German companies, working off orders for exports and investment goods, have so far defied a debt crisis the European Commission says risks triggering a recession in the euro area. The Munich-based Ifo institute